Ice or no Ice?

As I sit in the third floor basement of the JHU Library (I have not seen natural light in weeks it seems!) contemplating deep questions such as what motivates US International Trade policy: ideas, political elites, rational choice models, power, or my personal favorite the structure of international anarchy, another question drifts into my mind which is much less complex but will also have wide ranging implications for my future, Ice or no Ice?

Will there be an ice out on the Gunflint before I arrive on May 9th?

Specifically I am wondering if when I arrive in the BWCA in just over two weeks whether the lakes around Tuscarora on the Gunflint trail will still be iced over? According to Minnesota DNR the average ice out for may of the lakes in the region is right around the beginning of May and last year the ice went out in record time by April 10th. This year though has been the year of the never ending Winter in Minnesota with temperatures remaining near freezing and snow storms occurring in mid to (gasp!) late April! While temperatures are warming up in Grand Marais and the Gunflint Trail ice out can be a long slow process. The record for the latest ice out in the region is May 17th back in 1996. Should there be another historically late ice out this year (and it looks like there might be) chances are my first week in the BWCA will be a bit different then I was expecting!

Current MN ice out conditions